If you’ve seen headlines or social posts calling for a housing crash, it’s easy to wonder if home values are about to take a hit. But the reality is the numbers don’t support a crash. They point to slow, steady, and sustainable growth.
While prices will vary by region, and Carlsbad, CA may see its own pace of change, national projections show continued appreciation, not decline, over the next five years.
What Experts Are Actually Predicting
According to the Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES), which gathers input from over 100 leading housing market economists each quarter, the consensus is clear:
-
Home prices are expected to rise approximately 15% between now and 2029.
-
The most optimistic experts forecast growth closer to 26%.
-
Even the most conservative outlook anticipates around 5% appreciation.
Not one of these expert groups is calling for a nationwide decline, and that includes desirable coastal markets like Carlsbad and North County San Diego.
How Today’s Market Compares to Normal Trends
If you look back at the last 25 years, home values in the U.S. have typically appreciated 4–5% per year. The new forecasts call for 2–3.5% annual growth, slightly lower than average, but far more balanced and sustainable.
In 2020–2022, prices rose too fast due to record-low inventory and intense buyer competition. Some markets saw increases of 15–20% in a single year.
What we’re seeing now is the market returning to a more stable rhythm, one that favors long-term strength over short-term spikes.
Why a Crash Isn’t on the Horizon
The idea that “what goes up must come down” doesn’t really apply to housing. Historically, home prices have continued to rise because of one simple factor: Supply and demand.
Even with higher interest rates and affordability challenges, there are still more buyers than homes available. That imbalance continues to put upward pressure on prices, especially in highly desirable areas like Carlsbad, CA, known for its beaches, schools, and lifestyle.
In and around Carlsbad:
-
Inventory remains tight, especially for updated and move-in-ready homes.
-
Buyer demand is supported by strong job centers, coastal appeal, and quality of life in North County San Diego.
-
Well-priced homes still draw strong attention and, in many cases, multiple offers.
This shortage is exactly why experts and local professionals like Nadia Colucci and Colucci & Co. Realty Group agree: The market isn’t collapsing, it’s stabilizing.
What This Means for Carlsbad Homeowners and Buyers
For homeowners in Carlsbad, this outlook is good news. It means your equity is holding strong and likely growing over time, even if the pace is more moderate than the last few years.
For buyers, it means waiting for a crash may not be the best move, because prices are projected to keep climbing year after year, just at a steadier, more sustainable rate.
The market is adjusting, not declining. And as balance returns, opportunities are emerging for both sides, especially when guided by a team that understands how to interpret the data and navigate North County micro-markets.
Colucci & Co. Realty Group, led by Nadia Colucci and Anne Benitez, helps Carlsbad buyers and sellers:
-
Understand what current trends mean for their specific home or search criteria
-
Time their move around both life events and market conditions
-
Use data-driven pricing and strategy to make confident decisions
The Bottom Line
If you’ve been waiting to buy or sell because you’re worried about a crash, the data tells a different story. The question isn’t if prices will rise, it’s by how much.
Every property, neighborhood, and price point in Carlsbad is unique, and what’s happening in your segment of the market may not match the national headlines.
Let’s connect to discuss what’s happening specifically in the Carlsbad housing market and how Colucci & Co. Realty Group can help you make confident decisions in this evolving market.
Work With the Experts in Carlsbad, CA
With 149 five-star reviews on Google, $79M+ in closed volume in 2025, and 550+ lifetime transactions, Colucci & Co. Realty Group, led by Nadia Colucci and Anne Benitez, is proud to be one of the most trusted and top-performing real estate teams in Carlsbad, CA.
Whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or investing, work with a team that combines local Carlsbad knowledge and data-backed market insight to help you succeed.
Curious what your Carlsbad home is worth? Request a free pricing and strategy consultation with Nadia and Colucci & Co. Realty Group today.
